Economic calendar

Forecast2.5%Previous2.5%

What it is

This is the first, early estimate of core inflation in the eurozone, which leaves out volatile food and energy prices. It is published by Eurostat and compares prices with the same period a year earlier.

Why it matters

The European Central Bank (ECB) pays close attention to core inflation when setting interest rates, so traders watch it closely. It is usually considered a high-importance release.

Usual market reaction

Prices tend to react to the actual figure compared with the forecast. A higher-than-forecast reading often suggests the ECB may keep rates high for longer, which usually supports the euro, while a lower-than-forecast reading often weighs on it. Moves in the euro can also show up in pairs such as EUR/USD.

Forecast4.0%Previous3.8%

What it is

This is the early estimate of the Eurozone Consumer Price Index (CPI) compared with a year earlier, released before the final figure. It is published by Eurostat, the European Union's statistics office.

Why it matters

Inflation is a main factor in the European Central Bank's (ECB) interest-rate decisions, and the flash estimate is the earliest reading, so it usually draws strong attention and is of high importance for the euro.

Usual market reaction

Prices tend to react to the actual figure compared with the forecast. Higher-than-forecast inflation may suggest the ECB keeps rates high for longer, which often supports the euro (EUR), while a lower reading usually weighs on it by raising the chance of easier policy. Moves may show up in EUR pairs and sometimes in European stock indices.

Forecast54.8Previous54.9

What it is

This is a survey of purchasing managers in the US services sector, produced by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). A reading above 50 suggests the services sector is expanding, while below 50 suggests it is contracting.

Why it matters

Services make up most of the US economy, so this report helps show the economy's direction and price pressures. It is usually seen as a high to medium importance release.

Usual market reaction

Prices tend to react to the actual figure compared with the forecast. A higher-than-forecast reading often supports the US dollar, since it points to a firmer economy and may make Fed rate cuts less likely soon, while a lower reading usually weighs on the dollar. Gold often moves in the opposite direction to the dollar in the short term, and stock indices can react differently depending on how the data changes interest rate expectations.