Economic calendar

Forecast52.0Previous52.1

What it is

A survey of purchasing managers at private Chinese factories, compiled by S&P Global (formerly known as the Caixin PMI). A reading above 50 means the manufacturing sector is expanding, and below 50 means it is contracting.

Why it matters

It is one of the first monthly readings on the health of China's economy, so traders watch it closely. Its importance is usually moderate.

Usual market reaction

Prices tend to react to the actual figure compared with the forecast. A higher-than-forecast result usually supports the yuan and commodity-linked currencies such as the AUD, and often helps stock market sentiment. A lower-than-forecast result usually weighs on them.

Forecast0.4%Previous1.3%

What it is

The month-on-month change in retail sales in Germany, published by the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis).

Why it matters

Consumer spending is a major part of the economy, and Germany is the largest economy in the eurozone. The impact is usually low to moderate, and the data is often volatile and revised later.

Usual market reaction

Prices tend to react to the actual figure compared with the forecast. Higher-than-forecast retail sales usually support the euro (EUR) because they point to solid consumer spending, while lower-than-forecast sales tend to weigh on it. Traders often read it alongside inflation data and ECB comments.

Forecast50.4Previous51.0

What it is

A monthly survey of purchasing managers at Spanish factories, published by S&P Global. A reading above 50 suggests the manufacturing sector is expanding, while below 50 suggests it is contracting.

Why it matters

It comes out soon after the month ends, giving an early look at eurozone economic health, with Spain being one of the bloc's larger economies. Its market impact is usually moderate and smaller than the overall eurozone PMI.

Usual market reaction

Prices react to the actual figure compared with the forecast. A higher-than-forecast result usually supports the euro (EUR), while a lower one tends to weigh on it. Moves are often modest unless the surprise is large or matches the picture in other eurozone PMIs.

Forecast49.9Previous50.4

What it is

A monthly survey of purchasing managers at Italian factories, published by S&P Global. A reading above 50 suggests expansion, while below 50 suggests contraction.

Why it matters

Italy is one of the eurozone's largest economies with a significant industrial sector, so the figure gives an early read on eurozone manufacturing. Its market impact is usually moderate.

Usual market reaction

Prices react to the actual figure compared with the forecast. A higher-than-forecast result usually supports the euro (EUR), while a lower one tends to weigh on it. Traders often pay more attention to the overall eurozone PMI, so single-country figures tend to cause only small moves.

Forecast49.3Previous49.3

What it is

The final reading of France's manufacturing PMI, published by S&P Global. It updates the earlier flash estimate once more survey responses have been collected. Above 50 suggests expansion, while below 50 suggests contraction.

Why it matters

France is one of the eurozone's largest economies, but because the flash estimate is already known, the final reading is usually of fairly low importance.

Usual market reaction

Prices react to the actual figure compared with the forecast, which is usually set close to the flash number. A higher-than-forecast result usually supports the euro (EUR), while a lower one tends to weigh on it. Revisions are often small, so moves tend to be limited unless the final figure differs clearly from the flash.

Forecast54.2Previous54.2

What it is

A survey-based index of conditions in Germany's factory sector, compiled by S&P Global from purchasing managers at manufacturers. The final reading revises the earlier flash estimate.

Why it matters

A reading above 50 signals the manufacturing sector is expanding, and below 50 signals contraction. Germany is the eurozone's largest economy, so traders use it to gauge European growth. It is usually of medium importance.

Usual market reaction

Prices usually react to the actual figure compared with the forecast. A higher-than-forecast result tends to support the euro, while a lower one tends to weigh on it. Final readings are often close to the flash estimate, so moves are often small unless the revision is notable.

Forecast52.4Previous52.4

What it is

A survey-based index of factory-sector conditions across the whole eurozone, compiled by S&P Global from purchasing managers at manufacturers. The final reading revises the earlier flash estimate.

Why it matters

It is an early signal of the health of the European economy. A reading above 50 means expansion and below 50 means contraction. It is usually of medium importance for the euro.

Usual market reaction

Prices usually react to the actual figure compared with the forecast. A higher-than-forecast result tends to support the euro, while a lower one tends to weigh on it, as it may suggest the economy is stronger or weaker than expected. Final numbers are often close to the flash estimate, so the impact is often limited.

What it is

Joachim Nagel, president of Germany's central bank (the Bundesbank), speaks publicly. He is also a member of the ECB Governing Council, which sets interest rate policy for the eurozone.

Why it matters

Traders listen for hints about the future direction of ECB interest rates. The importance depends on what is said, and it is often greater when an ECB meeting is near.

Usual market reaction

Hawkish comments, such as worry about inflation or support for keeping rates high, tend to support the euro. Dovish comments, such as openness to rate cuts, tend to weigh on it. Markets often care more about a change in tone than about repeated views.

Previous51.5

What it is

A survey of purchasing managers at Canadian factories about new orders, output and hiring, published by S&P Global. A reading above 50 means the manufacturing sector is expanding.

Why it matters

It comes out early in the month and gives a quick read on the economy, so traders watch it, though its importance is usually moderate.

Usual market reaction

Prices usually react to the actual figure compared with the forecast. A higher-than-forecast PMI often supports the Canadian dollar (CAD) as it points to a stronger economy, while a lower-than-forecast result tends to weigh on it, especially if the reading falls below 50.

Forecast56.0Previous56.0

What it is

The final version of the US manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index, published by S&P Global. It revises the earlier flash estimate released a little before.

Why it matters

Because the flash estimate is already out, the final reading usually has a limited impact unless it differs noticeably from the flash figure.

Usual market reaction

Prices usually react only when the actual figure differs from the forecast, which normally sits close to the flash reading. A higher-than-forecast result often supports the US dollar (USD) and may weigh slightly on gold, while a lower-than-forecast one tends to pressure the dollar and can help gold a little.

Forecast0.4%Previous0.9%

What it is

A measure of the monthly change in the value of construction spending in the United States, published by the US Census Bureau.

Why it matters

It reflects the health of housing and infrastructure, which links to interest rates and economic growth. Its importance is usually low to moderate.

Usual market reaction

Prices usually react to the actual figure compared with the forecast. A higher-than-forecast result often gives slight support to the US dollar as it points to a firmer economy, and may weigh a little on gold. A lower-than-forecast result tends to pressure the dollar. The reaction is generally modest.

Forecast77.2Previous77.9

What it is

A component of the US ISM Manufacturing report, published by the Institute for Supply Management. It measures whether factories are paying more or less for materials and inputs. A reading above 50 means prices are rising.

Why it matters

It is an early signal of inflation pressure, which feeds into the Federal Reserve's interest rate thinking, so traders pay it fair attention.

Usual market reaction

Prices usually react to the actual figure compared with the forecast. A higher-than-forecast reading points to stronger inflation pressure, which often supports the US dollar and Treasury yields and may weigh on gold and stock indices. A lower-than-forecast result tends to have the opposite effect.