Economic calendar

Forecast53.3Previous53.3

What it is

An index based on surveys of purchasing managers at Japanese factories about orders, output and hiring, compiled by S&P Global. The final reading is a revision of the earlier flash estimate.

Why it matters

A reading above 50 usually signals that manufacturing is expanding, and below 50 that it is shrinking. It is an early signal of economic health, but the final figure often matters less when it is close to the flash estimate.

Usual market reaction

Markets usually compare the actual figure with the forecast, which is often close to the flash number. A higher-than-forecast result tends to give the yen slight support as it points to a stronger economy, while a lower one often weighs on it. The reaction is usually smaller than for Bank of Japan announcements.

Forecast0.4%Previous1.3%

What it is

The month-on-month change in retail sales in Germany, published by the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis).

Why it matters

Consumer spending is a major part of the economy, and Germany is the largest economy in the eurozone. The impact is usually low to moderate, and the data is often volatile and revised later.

Usual market reaction

Prices tend to react to the actual figure compared with the forecast. Higher-than-forecast retail sales usually support the euro (EUR) because they point to solid consumer spending, while lower-than-forecast sales tend to weigh on it. Traders often read it alongside inflation data and ECB comments.

Forecast50.4Previous51.0

What it is

A monthly survey of purchasing managers at Spanish factories, published by S&P Global. A reading above 50 suggests the manufacturing sector is expanding, while below 50 suggests it is contracting.

Why it matters

It comes out soon after the month ends, giving an early look at eurozone economic health, with Spain being one of the bloc's larger economies. Its market impact is usually moderate and smaller than the overall eurozone PMI.

Usual market reaction

Prices react to the actual figure compared with the forecast. A higher-than-forecast result usually supports the euro (EUR), while a lower one tends to weigh on it. Moves are often modest unless the surprise is large or matches the picture in other eurozone PMIs.

Forecast49.9Previous50.4

What it is

A monthly survey of purchasing managers at Italian factories, published by S&P Global. A reading above 50 suggests expansion, while below 50 suggests contraction.

Why it matters

Italy is one of the eurozone's largest economies with a significant industrial sector, so the figure gives an early read on eurozone manufacturing. Its market impact is usually moderate.

Usual market reaction

Prices react to the actual figure compared with the forecast. A higher-than-forecast result usually supports the euro (EUR), while a lower one tends to weigh on it. Traders often pay more attention to the overall eurozone PMI, so single-country figures tend to cause only small moves.

Forecast49.3Previous49.3

What it is

The final reading of France's manufacturing PMI, published by S&P Global. It updates the earlier flash estimate once more survey responses have been collected. Above 50 suggests expansion, while below 50 suggests contraction.

Why it matters

France is one of the eurozone's largest economies, but because the flash estimate is already known, the final reading is usually of fairly low importance.

Usual market reaction

Prices react to the actual figure compared with the forecast, which is usually set close to the flash number. A higher-than-forecast result usually supports the euro (EUR), while a lower one tends to weigh on it. Revisions are often small, so moves tend to be limited unless the final figure differs clearly from the flash.

Forecast54.2Previous54.2

What it is

A survey-based index of conditions in Germany's factory sector, compiled by S&P Global from purchasing managers at manufacturers. The final reading revises the earlier flash estimate.

Why it matters

A reading above 50 signals the manufacturing sector is expanding, and below 50 signals contraction. Germany is the eurozone's largest economy, so traders use it to gauge European growth. It is usually of medium importance.

Usual market reaction

Prices usually react to the actual figure compared with the forecast. A higher-than-forecast result tends to support the euro, while a lower one tends to weigh on it. Final readings are often close to the flash estimate, so moves are often small unless the revision is notable.

Forecast52.4Previous52.4

What it is

A survey-based index of factory-sector conditions across the whole eurozone, compiled by S&P Global from purchasing managers at manufacturers. The final reading revises the earlier flash estimate.

Why it matters

It is an early signal of the health of the European economy. A reading above 50 means expansion and below 50 means contraction. It is usually of medium importance for the euro.

Usual market reaction

Prices usually react to the actual figure compared with the forecast. A higher-than-forecast result tends to support the euro, while a lower one tends to weigh on it, as it may suggest the economy is stronger or weaker than expected. Final numbers are often close to the flash estimate, so the impact is often limited.

What it is

Joachim Nagel, president of Germany's central bank (the Bundesbank), speaks publicly. He is also a member of the ECB Governing Council, which sets interest rate policy for the eurozone.

Why it matters

Traders listen for hints about the future direction of ECB interest rates. The importance depends on what is said, and it is often greater when an ECB meeting is near.

Usual market reaction

Hawkish comments, such as worry about inflation or support for keeping rates high, tend to support the euro. Dovish comments, such as openness to rate cuts, tend to weigh on it. Markets often care more about a change in tone than about repeated views.