Economic calendar

Forecast4.00%Previous3.75%

What it is

The main interest rate of the United Kingdom, set by the Bank of England's (BOE) Monetary Policy Committee.

Why it matters

It is one of the biggest drivers of the pound, because interest rates affect borrowing costs, inflation and capital flows.

Usual market reaction

Prices usually react to the actual rate compared with the forecast. A rate higher than expected, or a hawkish signal from the BOE, tends to support the pound, while a lower one often weighs on it. Gold is usually affected only indirectly, through moves in the US dollar. If the result matches expectations, the accompanying statement often matters more.

What it is

A document the Bank of England (BOE) publishes alongside its interest rate announcement, explaining the reasons for its decision and its view on inflation and the economy.

Why it matters

Traders read it to judge whether the BOE is leaning toward raising or cutting rates. It is usually considered highly important because it comes out with the rate decision.

Usual market reaction

Prices usually react to the wording compared with what the market expected. If the tone is more hawkish than expected, such as worry about inflation, the pound often gains support; if it is softer or hints at rate cuts, the pound tends to weaken. Pairs like GBP/USD can swing sharply when it is released.

What it is

A quarterly report from the Bank of England (BOE), released alongside its rate decision, with forecasts for inflation and economic growth.

Why it matters

It shows how the BOE sees the economy and inflation, which is linked to the future path of interest rates. It is usually a major event for the GBP.

Usual market reaction

Traders usually listen for hints about interest rates. Higher inflation forecasts or a firm tone often support the GBP, while weaker growth forecasts or a softer tone tend to weigh on it. Markets often react to what differs from expectations and can be volatile around the press conference.

Forecast7-0-2Previous3-0-6

What it is

A breakdown of how each member of the BOE's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted, for example to hold, raise or cut rates. It is released with the rate decision.

Why it matters

The vote split helps show where rates might go next. When members disagree strongly, the market usually pays closer attention.

Usual market reaction

Prices usually react to the votes compared with what the market expected. If more members vote to raise rates than forecast, the pound often gains support; if more vote to cut than expected, it tends to weaken. Traders often treat dissenting votes as a clue that policy may be changing direction.

What it is

A speech or public comments by the Governor of the Bank of England (BOE), Andrew Bailey, on the economy, inflation and monetary policy.

Why it matters

The Governor is the most influential voice at the BOE, so his words are often used to read where interest rates may head. Its importance depends on the topic and timing.

Usual market reaction

Traders usually listen for hints about rate hikes or cuts and compare the tone with what the market expected. A more hawkish tone than expected tends to support the pound, while a softer tone or worry about slower growth often weighs on it. Prices can be volatile during the speech, especially in any question-and-answer session.

What it is

Kazuo Ueda, Governor of the Bank of Japan (BOJ), gives a speech or public remarks about the economy and monetary policy.

Why it matters

The governor guides Japan's interest rate policy, so traders watch his words closely. It is usually seen as a high-importance event.

Usual market reaction

Traders usually listen for hints about whether the BOJ may raise interest rates or keep policy loose. If the tone is more hawkish than the market expects, the yen (JPY) often strengthens; if it is more dovish than expected, the yen tends to weaken. Prices can move sharply while he is speaking.

What it is

A general election in which New Zealand voters choose members of Parliament, which determines which party or parties form the government.

Why it matters

The result can shape budget, tax and economic policy, so it affects investor confidence in the New Zealand dollar. It tends to matter more when the result is close.

Usual market reaction

Markets usually compare the outcome with expectations from polls and news. A clear result with policies the market views favourably may support the New Zealand dollar (NZD), while an unclear result or uncertainty often leads to volatility or weakness. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand sets rates independently, so the impact usually comes from sentiment rather than direct rate changes.