Economic calendar

What it is

A weekly report from the American Petroleum Institute (API) showing changes in US stocks of crude oil, gasoline and distillates. It usually comes out after the market close on Tuesday.

Why it matters

Traders see it as an early hint before the official EIA report that follows. Its importance for the USD is usually low to moderate, but the oil market pays fairly close attention.

Usual market reaction

Markets react to the actual figure compared with the forecast. A bigger-than-expected fall in stocks is often read as strong demand or tight supply and tends to support oil prices, while a bigger-than-expected build tends to weigh on oil. The effect on the USD and gold is usually limited, but oil-linked currencies such as the CAD may move with oil prices.

Forecast-14.0%Previous-15.2%

What it is

Data from the Bank of Japan (BoJ) showing the yearly change in the monetary base, which is the cash in circulation plus the deposits financial institutions hold at the BoJ.

Why it matters

It gives a sense of how much liquidity the BoJ is supplying and the direction of its policy, but its importance for markets is usually low.

Usual market reaction

Markets compare the actual figure with the forecast. Faster-than-expected growth may suggest looser policy and tends to weigh slightly on the JPY, while a lower-than-expected or negative figure may suggest less stimulus and often supports the JPY. The reaction is usually mild compared with BoJ meetings or speeches.

Forecast0.2%Previous0.0%

What it is

This measures the monthly change in consumer spending by Australian households. It is published by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS).

Why it matters

Household consumption is a large part of the Australian economy, so the data gives clues about economic strength and inflation pressure, which feed into RBA interest rate decisions. It is usually a medium-impact release.

Usual market reaction

Markets compare the actual figure with the forecast. Spending that is higher than forecast usually supports the Australian dollar (AUD), as it suggests a stronger economy and may make RBA rate cuts less likely. A lower-than-forecast result tends to weigh on AUD. The link to gold is usually not clear-cut.

Forecast67KPrevious90K

What it is

A report on the monthly change in US private-sector jobs (excluding farms), published by the payroll company ADP based on its client payroll data.

Why it matters

It usually comes out before the official NFP report, so traders use it as a hint about the US labor market. Its record at predicting NFP is mixed, so its importance is usually moderate.

Usual market reaction

Prices react to the actual figure compared with the forecast. A higher-than-forecast result usually supports the US dollar (USD) because it suggests a stronger economy, while a lower one tends to weigh on it. Gold often moves opposite to the dollar, so it may soften when the dollar firms and rise when the dollar weakens.

Forecast4.8BPrevious4.2B

What it is

The difference between the value of Canada's exports and imports of goods and services, published by Statistics Canada.

Why it matters

Canada relies heavily on exports, especially oil and commodities sold to the US, so this figure reflects demand for Canadian goods. Its importance is usually moderate.

Usual market reaction

Prices react to the actual figure compared with the forecast. A better-than-forecast balance (a larger surplus or smaller deficit) usually supports the Canadian dollar (CAD), while a worse one tends to weigh on it. Changes in oil prices can also influence exports and how CAD reacts.

Forecast-107.9BPrevious-105.6B

What it is

The difference between the value of US exports and imports of goods and services, published by the US Census Bureau and the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).

Why it matters

It shows foreign demand for US products and the demand for dollars needed to pay for them. Its impact is usually modest compared with key releases such as CPI or NFP.

Usual market reaction

Prices react to the actual figure compared with the forecast. A smaller-than-forecast deficit (a better number) usually supports the US dollar (USD), while a larger deficit tends to weigh on it. The effect on gold is often small, and gold generally moves opposite to the dollar.

Forecast57.9Previous57.9

What it is

A survey-based index of activity in the US services sector, compiled by S&P Global from responses by purchasing managers. The final reading revises the earlier flash estimate, and a value above 50 usually signals expansion.

Why it matters

Services make up most of the US economy, so traders use this to gauge economic momentum. The final figure is often close to the flash estimate, so its impact is usually moderate.

Usual market reaction

Markets react to the actual figure compared with the forecast. A higher-than-forecast result tends to support the US dollar, as it suggests a stronger economy and possibly rates staying higher for longer, while a lower result often weighs on it. Gold often moves in the opposite direction to the dollar, though other factors matter too.

Forecast-1.7MPrevious-1.9M

What it is

A weekly report from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) showing the change in the amount of commercial crude oil stored in the US compared with the previous week.

Why it matters

It gives a snapshot of US oil supply and demand, and the US is one of the world's largest oil consumers and producers, so oil traders watch it closely. Its direct effect on currencies is usually smaller than major economic data.

Usual market reaction

Oil prices often react to the actual figure compared with the forecast. A larger-than-expected build (more supply) tends to weigh on oil prices, while a larger-than-expected draw usually supports them. The effect on the US dollar is typically indirect and modest, though oil prices can influence inflation expectations and oil-linked currencies.