Economic calendar

What it is

A summary of the discussions at the Bank of Japan's previous monetary policy meeting, published some time after the meeting. It shows what board members said about the economy, inflation and interest rates.

Why it matters

Traders read it for clues about when the BoJ might change policy or interest rates. Its importance is usually moderate, and it can matter more when markets are focused on a possible policy shift.

Usual market reaction

There is no single number to compare, so traders look at whether the tone is more hawkish (leaning towards higher rates or less stimulus) or more dovish than expected. A hawkish tone often supports the yen, while a cautious tone with ongoing easy policy tends to weigh on it. Because the meeting has already happened, the reaction is often smaller than on the decision day.

Forecast0.94BPrevious0.50B

What it is

The difference between the value of Australia's goods exports and imports, published by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS). A positive number is a surplus and a negative number is a deficit.

Why it matters

Australia mainly exports resources such as iron ore and coal, so this figure reflects demand for its goods and the health of its economy. Its importance is usually moderate.

Usual market reaction

Markets react to the actual figure compared with the forecast. A larger-than-expected surplus (or smaller deficit) tends to support the Australian dollar, as more demand for the currency is needed to pay for exports, while a weaker result often weighs on it. The impact is usually limited unless the figure differs a lot from expectations.

Previous3.10|3.8

What it is

This is an auction in which Japan's Ministry of Finance sells 10-year government bonds to investors and financial institutions to raise funds for the government.

Why it matters

The result shows how strong demand is for Japanese government debt and where bond yields may be heading, which traders watch regularly. Its importance is usually moderate.

Usual market reaction

Markets often look at the bid-to-cover ratio and the average yield compared with the previous auction and expectations. Strong demand and higher yields tend to support the yen, while weak demand often pressures bond prices and can cause short-lived volatility. The usual link to gold or stock indices is not very clear-cut.

What it is

This is a public speech or set of remarks by the Deputy Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), one of the central bank's senior officials.

Why it matters

Traders listen for clues about the central bank's view on the economy, inflation and the likely path of interest rates. Its importance usually depends on the content and tone of the remarks.

Usual market reaction

Markets judge whether the comments sound hawkish (hinting at higher or longer-held rates) or dovish (hinting at rate cuts) compared with expectations. Hawkish remarks tend to support the Australian dollar, while dovish ones often weigh on it. If nothing new is said, the reaction is often small.

Forecast4.6%Previous-10.6%

What it is

This figure, published by Germany's Federal Statistical Office (Destatis), shows the monthly change in the value of new orders placed with German factories.

Why it matters

Orders are a forward-looking sign of future production and the health of German industry, the largest economy in the eurozone. Its importance is usually moderate.

Usual market reaction

Markets compare the actual figure with the forecast. A higher-than-forecast result usually points to a stronger economy and tends to support the euro, while a lower one often weighs on it. The data can swing a lot because of large one-off orders, so reactions are sometimes muted, and the DAX index may also move with the economic outlook.

Forecast0.3%Previous-0.3%

What it is

This figure, published by France's national statistics office (INSEE), shows the monthly change in the volume of output from factories, mines and utilities.

Why it matters

It helps show the health of French manufacturing and the growth outlook, but it usually moves markets less than German data or eurozone-wide figures.

Usual market reaction

Markets compare the actual figure with the forecast. A higher-than-forecast result often points to a stronger economy and may give the euro slight support, while a lower one can weigh on it a little. Price moves are usually modest unless the result is far from expectations.

Forecast3.1%Previous3.1%

What it is

This shows the share of the Swiss labour force that is out of work. It is published monthly by the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO).

Why it matters

Traders use it to gauge the health of the Swiss labour market and economy, which can influence the Swiss National Bank's (SNB) view on interest rates. It is usually of medium importance.

Usual market reaction

Prices react to the actual figure compared with the forecast. A higher-than-forecast unemployment rate is often read as a weaker economy and tends to weigh on the Swiss franc (CHF), while a lower-than-forecast figure usually supports it. The reaction is often modest compared with inflation data or central bank meetings.

Forecast0.0%Previous0.3%

What it is

This measures the monthly change in the value of retail goods sold in Italy. It is published by Italy's national statistics office, ISTAT.

Why it matters

Consumer spending is a major part of any economy, and Italy is one of the eurozone's larger economies. However, this release usually has fairly low importance for the euro.

Usual market reaction

Prices react to the actual figure compared with the forecast. Retail sales above the forecast are often seen as a sign of firm consumer demand and may give the euro (EUR) slight support, while a weaker result tends to weigh on it slightly. The market impact is usually limited unless the figure is far from expectations.

Previous4.18|1.6

What it is

Spain's Treasury auctions 10-year government bonds to investors to raise money for the government. The results show the average yield and the bid-to-cover ratio, which compares demand with the amount offered.

Why it matters

The result shows how confident investors are in Spain's public finances. It is usually considered a low-to-medium importance event.

Usual market reaction

Traders usually compare the result with the previous auction, or with the forecast if there is one. Strong demand and a lower-than-expected yield tend to be read as confidence and may slightly support the euro. Weak demand or a higher-than-expected yield can signal worry and may weigh a little on the euro, though the overall effect on the currency is often limited.

Previous4.93|2.0

What it is

France's debt agency, Agence France Trésor, auctions 10-year government bonds to investors. The results show the average yield and the bid-to-cover ratio, which compares demand with the amount offered.

Why it matters

France is one of the eurozone's largest economies, so the result reflects investor confidence in France and in European bond markets. It is usually considered a low-to-medium importance event.

Usual market reaction

Traders usually compare the result with the previous auction, or with the forecast if there is one. Strong demand and a lower-than-expected yield tend to be read as confidence and may slightly support the euro. Weak demand or a higher-than-expected yield can signal fiscal worries and may weigh a little on the euro, though the effect on the currency is usually not large.

Forecast2.5%Previous1.9%

What it is

This measures the monthly change in the prices producers receive for their goods at the factory gate. It is published by Eurostat, the European Union's statistics office.

Why it matters

Producer prices often act as an early signal for consumer inflation, so they feed into views on the European Central Bank's (ECB) interest rate path. They are usually less important than CPI.

Usual market reaction

Prices react to the actual figure compared with the forecast. A PPI reading higher than forecast is often read as rising inflation pressure, which may suggest the ECB keeps rates higher for longer and tends to support the euro (EUR). A lower-than-forecast result usually weighs on the euro, though the reaction is often modest.

Previous4.18|1.6

What it is

Spain's Treasury auctions 10-year government bonds to investors to raise money for the government. The results show the average yield and the bid-to-cover ratio, which compares demand with the amount offered.

Why it matters

The result shows how confident investors are in Spain's public finances. It is usually considered a low-to-medium importance event.

Usual market reaction

Traders usually compare the result with the previous auction, or with the forecast if there is one. Strong demand and a lower-than-expected yield tend to be read as confidence and may slightly support the euro. Weak demand or a higher-than-expected yield can signal worry and may weigh a little on the euro, though the overall effect on the currency is often limited.

Previous4.93|2.0

What it is

France's debt agency, Agence France Trésor, auctions 10-year government bonds to investors. The results show the average yield and the bid-to-cover ratio, which compares demand with the amount offered.

Why it matters

France is one of the eurozone's largest economies, so the result reflects investor confidence in France and in European bond markets. It is usually considered a low-to-medium importance event.

Usual market reaction

Traders usually compare the result with the previous auction, or with the forecast if there is one. Strong demand and a lower-than-expected yield tend to be read as confidence and may slightly support the euro. Weak demand or a higher-than-expected yield can signal fiscal worries and may weigh a little on the euro, though the effect on the currency is usually not large.

Previous-19.9%

What it is

Challenger, Gray & Christmas, a US employment consulting firm, publishes the number of job cuts announced by US employers. This figure shows the change compared with the same period a year earlier.

Why it matters

It offers a hint about whether the US labor market is weakening or staying strong, often ahead of jobs reports such as NFP. It is usually a low-to-medium importance release.

Usual market reaction

Traders usually compare the actual figure with the forecast or the previous reading. Higher-than-forecast job cuts tend to be read as a weaker labor market, which often weighs on the US dollar, while lower-than-forecast cuts usually support it. Gold often moves in the opposite direction to the dollar, so it may get support when the dollar weakens, although this link is not always consistent.

Forecast2.8%Previous1.4%

What it is

This measures how much output US workers produce per hour worked. It is published by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) as a preliminary quarterly figure.

Why it matters

Traders watch it because it reflects how efficiently the economy is running and ties into labor costs and inflation. It is usually of medium importance.

Usual market reaction

Prices tend to react to the actual figure compared with the forecast. A higher-than-forecast result is often read as a sign of a healthy economy and usually supports the US dollar, while a lower result tends to weigh on it. The reaction can be mixed because traders also look at unit labor costs released alongside it. Gold often moves in the opposite direction to the dollar.

Forecast0.3%Previous1.3%

What it is

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) publishes this figure, which measures the change in labor costs needed to produce one unit of output compared with the previous quarter. It is usually released together with labor productivity data.

Why it matters

Fast-rising labor costs can add pressure on inflation, which the Fed considers when setting interest rates. It is usually a medium-importance release.

Usual market reaction

Traders usually compare the actual figure with the forecast. A higher-than-forecast result tends to be read as more inflation pressure and may lead markets to expect rates to stay higher for longer, which often supports the US dollar, while a lower result usually weighs on it. Gold often moves opposite to the dollar and bond yields, so it may soften when the dollar strengthens, but because this figure is often revised later, the reaction is usually moderate.

What it is

Beth Hammack is the president of the Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank and takes part in FOMC meetings, which set US interest rate policy.

Why it matters

Comments from FOMC participants help the market guess where interest rates may head next. The importance usually depends on the speaker's influence and what is said.

Usual market reaction

Traders listen for hints about interest rates, inflation and the job market. A hawkish tone (leaning toward higher or longer-held rates) tends to support the US dollar and may weigh on gold, while a dovish tone (leaning toward rate cuts) often pressures the dollar and may support gold. Moves are usually modest unless the speech contains something new.

What it is

Tom Barkin is the president of the Richmond Federal Reserve Bank and takes part in FOMC meetings, which set US interest rate policy.

Why it matters

Traders watch because his remarks can reveal views on the economy and interest rates, helping the market gauge Fed policy. The importance is usually low to medium.

Usual market reaction

Traders listen for hints about rates, inflation and the labor market. A hawkish tone tends to support the US dollar and may weigh on gold, while a dovish tone often pressures the dollar and may support gold. If there is nothing new, the market reaction is usually small.

Forecast81BPrevious80B

What it is

A weekly report from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) showing how much natural gas is held in underground storage in the US and how that changed from the previous week.

Why it matters

Energy traders use it to judge the balance between natural gas supply and demand, so it mainly affects natural gas prices. Its impact on currencies and broader markets is usually limited.

Usual market reaction

Prices tend to react to the actual figure compared with the forecast. A bigger-than-expected build (or a smaller-than-expected draw) suggests more supply and usually weighs on natural gas prices, while a smaller build or larger draw often supports them. The effect on the US dollar and gold is generally small.