Economic calendar

Previous0.3%

What it is

A monthly estimate of how prices of goods and services are changing in Australia, produced by the Melbourne Institute at the University of Melbourne.

Why it matters

It comes out before the official CPI, so traders use it as an early hint of inflation trends, which relate to RBA interest rate decisions. It is usually a low-to-medium impact release.

Usual market reaction

Markets usually compare the actual figure with the forecast. A higher-than-forecast reading tends to support the Australian dollar, as traders may see the RBA keeping rates higher for longer, while a lower reading often weighs on it. The reaction is usually milder than for the official CPI.

Forecast1.8%Previous-6.1%

What it is

Data on the number of permits approved for new buildings in Australia, published by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) as a change from the previous month.

Why it matters

Approvals are a forward-looking sign of construction activity and the housing market, which is sensitive to interest rates. It is usually a low-to-medium impact release, and the figure often jumps around from month to month.

Usual market reaction

Markets usually compare the actual figure with the forecast. A higher-than-forecast result tends to support the Australian dollar as it suggests solid housing demand and a stronger economy, while a lower one often weighs on it. The reaction is usually modest.

Forecast53.3Previous53.3

What it is

An index based on surveys of purchasing managers at Japanese factories about orders, output and hiring, compiled by S&P Global. The final reading is a revision of the earlier flash estimate.

Why it matters

A reading above 50 usually signals that manufacturing is expanding, and below 50 that it is shrinking. It is an early signal of economic health, but the final figure often matters less when it is close to the flash estimate.

Usual market reaction

Markets usually compare the actual figure with the forecast, which is often close to the flash number. A higher-than-forecast result tends to give the yen slight support as it points to a stronger economy, while a lower one often weighs on it. The reaction is usually smaller than for Bank of Japan announcements.

Forecast52.0Previous52.1

What it is

A survey of purchasing managers at private Chinese factories, compiled by S&P Global (formerly known as the Caixin PMI). A reading above 50 means the manufacturing sector is expanding, and below 50 means it is contracting.

Why it matters

It is one of the first monthly readings on the health of China's economy, so traders watch it closely. Its importance is usually moderate.

Usual market reaction

Prices tend to react to the actual figure compared with the forecast. A higher-than-forecast result usually supports the yuan and commodity-linked currencies such as the AUD, and often helps stock market sentiment. A lower-than-forecast result usually weighs on them.

Previous15.5%

What it is

A commodity price index published by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). It shows the year-on-year change in prices of Australia's main exports, such as iron ore, coal and LNG.

Why it matters

Australia relies heavily on commodity export income, so price changes matter for its economy. This release usually has a fairly small market impact.

Usual market reaction

Prices tend to react to the actual figure compared with the forecast. A higher-than-forecast rise in commodity prices usually supports the Australian dollar (AUD), as export earnings often improve, while a lower result tends to weigh on it. The reaction is often muted because traders can already see these prices moving in the market.