Economic calendar

Forecast-14.0%Previous-15.2%

What it is

Data from the Bank of Japan (BoJ) showing the yearly change in the monetary base, which is the cash in circulation plus the deposits financial institutions hold at the BoJ.

Why it matters

It gives a sense of how much liquidity the BoJ is supplying and the direction of its policy, but its importance for markets is usually low.

Usual market reaction

Markets compare the actual figure with the forecast. Faster-than-expected growth may suggest looser policy and tends to weigh slightly on the JPY, while a lower-than-expected or negative figure may suggest less stimulus and often supports the JPY. The reaction is usually mild compared with BoJ meetings or speeches.

Forecast0.2%Previous0.0%

What it is

This measures the monthly change in consumer spending by Australian households. It is published by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS).

Why it matters

Household consumption is a large part of the Australian economy, so the data gives clues about economic strength and inflation pressure, which feed into RBA interest rate decisions. It is usually a medium-impact release.

Usual market reaction

Markets compare the actual figure with the forecast. Spending that is higher than forecast usually supports the Australian dollar (AUD), as it suggests a stronger economy and may make RBA rate cuts less likely. A lower-than-forecast result tends to weigh on AUD. The link to gold is usually not clear-cut.

Forecast53.1Previous53.1

What it is

A survey of purchasing managers at British service companies, published by S&P Global and CIPS. The final reading revises the flash (preliminary) estimate released earlier.

Why it matters

Services make up most of the UK economy, so traders use it to gauge economic health; a reading above 50 usually signals expansion. The final figure usually has a moderate impact because the flash estimate is already known.

Usual market reaction

Prices react to the actual figure compared with the forecast. A higher-than-forecast result usually supports the pound (GBP), while a lower one tends to weigh on it. If the final number differs a lot from the flash estimate, the move can be larger.

Forecast4.8BPrevious4.2B

What it is

The difference between the value of Canada's exports and imports of goods and services, published by Statistics Canada.

Why it matters

Canada relies heavily on exports, especially oil and commodities sold to the US, so this figure reflects demand for Canadian goods. Its importance is usually moderate.

Usual market reaction

Prices react to the actual figure compared with the forecast. A better-than-forecast balance (a larger surplus or smaller deficit) usually supports the Canadian dollar (CAD), while a worse one tends to weigh on it. Changes in oil prices can also influence exports and how CAD reacts.