Economic calendar

What it is

Joachim Nagel, president of Germany's central bank (the Bundesbank), speaks publicly. He is also a member of the ECB Governing Council, which sets interest rate policy for the eurozone.

Why it matters

Traders listen for hints about the future direction of ECB interest rates. The importance depends on what is said, and it is often greater when an ECB meeting is near.

Usual market reaction

Hawkish comments, such as worry about inflation or support for keeping rates high, tend to support the euro. Dovish comments, such as openness to rate cuts, tend to weigh on it. Markets often care more about a change in tone than about repeated views.

Forecast0.0%Previous2.0%

What it is

This measures the monthly change in output from Germany's factories, energy producers and other industry compared with the previous month. It is published by Germany's federal statistics office, Destatis.

Why it matters

Germany is the largest economy in the eurozone and relies heavily on manufacturing, so this figure helps show the health of both the German and eurozone economies. It is usually of medium importance.

Usual market reaction

Prices tend to react to the actual figure compared with the forecast. A higher-than-forecast result usually supports the euro and may help German stocks, while a lower one usually weighs on the euro. The figure often swings from month to month, so the reaction is not always strong.

Forecast0.0%Previous0.0%

What it is

This index measures the monthly change in UK house prices compared with the previous month, based on mortgage data from Lloyds Banking Group.

Why it matters

House prices reflect consumer strength, borrowing demand and the effect of interest rates on the UK economy. The release is usually of low to medium importance for the market.

Usual market reaction

Prices tend to react to the actual figure compared with the forecast. A higher-than-forecast rise in house prices usually gives the pound slight support, as it may point to firm demand, while a lower result tends to weigh on it slightly. Moves are often small unless the surprise is large.

Forecast-5.8BPrevious-6.1B

What it is

This is the monthly gap between the value of France's exports and imports of goods, published by French customs. Exports above imports give a surplus, while the reverse gives a deficit.

Why it matters

The trade balance shows foreign demand for French goods and how competitive they are. Markets usually give it fairly low weight compared with eurozone inflation or jobs data.

Usual market reaction

Prices tend to react to the actual figure compared with the forecast. A better-than-forecast balance, such as a smaller deficit, usually gives the euro slight support, while a worse result tends to weigh on it slightly. The effect is generally limited.

Previous770B

What it is

A monthly figure published by the Swiss National Bank (SNB) showing the value of foreign currency assets it holds.

Why it matters

Traders watch it for clues on whether the SNB may be intervening in the currency market to limit the Swiss franc's strength. It usually has a fairly small market impact.

Usual market reaction

Markets tend to compare the actual figure with the forecast. Reserves higher than forecast may suggest the SNB bought more foreign currency to hold back the franc, which can slightly weigh on CHF, while a lower figure may be read the opposite way. However, the number is also affected by changes in asset values, so the signal is often unclear.

Forecast-35Previous-36

What it is

A quarterly survey by Switzerland's State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO) asking households about the economy, their own finances and job security.

Why it matters

Consumer confidence gives a clue about whether people may spend more or less, which affects economic growth. It is usually seen as a low-to-medium importance release.

Usual market reaction

Markets tend to compare the actual reading with the forecast. A higher-than-forecast reading, showing more optimism, usually supports CHF slightly, while a lower one tends to weigh on the franc. The reaction is often modest.

What it is

John Williams, President of the New York Fed and Vice Chair of the FOMC, gives a public speech or interview.

Why it matters

He is a key voice on the FOMC, which sets US interest rates, so his comments are often watched for hints about the policy path.

Usual market reaction

Traders listen for clues about interest rates, inflation and the labour market. A hawkish tone, or hints that rates may stay high for longer, usually supports the US dollar and can weigh on gold and stock indices, while a dovish tone tends to do the opposite. Markets usually react to surprises versus what was expected, not to every remark.

Forecast-0.1%Previous0.1%

What it is

A figure published by Eurostat, the EU's statistics office, showing the month-on-month change in the volume of retail sales across the eurozone.

Why it matters

Consumer spending is a big part of the economy, so this release helps gauge economic health. It usually has a medium level of importance for EUR.

Usual market reaction

Markets tend to compare the actual figure with the forecast. Retail sales higher than forecast usually support the euro because they suggest stronger spending, while a lower figure tends to weigh on it. The reaction can be larger if the data changes expectations about ECB interest rates.

What it is

A speech or interview by Petra Tschudin, a member of the Governing Board of the Swiss National Bank (SNB).

Why it matters

Comments from policymakers can hint at the direction of interest rates and the central bank's view on the Swiss franc. The importance is usually low to medium unless she signals something different from market expectations.

Usual market reaction

Traders usually listen for remarks on inflation, interest rates or the strength of the franc. Prices tend to react to her tone compared with what the market already expects. If she sounds more hawkish than expected, CHF often gains support, while a more dovish tone may weigh on it. Often there is nothing new and the reaction can be small.