Economic calendar

Forecast54.8Previous54.9

What it is

This is a survey of purchasing managers in the US services sector, produced by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). A reading above 50 suggests the services sector is expanding, while below 50 suggests it is contracting.

Why it matters

Services make up most of the US economy, so this report helps show the economy's direction and price pressures. It is usually seen as a high to medium importance release.

Usual market reaction

Prices tend to react to the actual figure compared with the forecast. A higher-than-forecast reading often supports the US dollar, since it points to a firmer economy and may make Fed rate cuts less likely soon, while a lower reading usually weighs on the dollar. Gold often moves in the opposite direction to the dollar in the short term, and stock indices can react differently depending on how the data changes interest rate expectations.

What it is

This is a public speech or set of remarks by Martin Schlegel, Chairman of the Swiss National Bank (SNB), which is Switzerland's central bank.

Why it matters

A central bank chief's comments can offer clues about interest rates, monetary policy and the central bank's view of the Swiss franc. Traders follow it, and its importance usually depends on what is said.

Usual market reaction

Traders usually listen for hints about rate changes, views on inflation or possible action on the currency. If the tone is firmer than the market expects, the Swiss franc often strengthens, while a softer tone than expected tends to weigh on it. Gold sometimes draws attention when the franc moves sharply, as both are often seen as safe-haven assets.

Forecast197KPrevious194K

What it is

This is a weekly figure showing how many people in the US filed for unemployment benefits for the first time. It is published by the US Department of Labor.

Why it matters

It is an early signal of how healthy the job market is, which the Fed considers when setting interest rates. The figure can swing from week to week, so it is usually of medium importance.

Usual market reaction

Prices tend to react to the actual figure compared with the forecast. This data works in reverse: a lower-than-forecast number suggests a stronger job market and usually supports the US dollar, while a higher-than-forecast number suggests a weaker one and often weighs on the dollar. Gold often moves opposite to the dollar in the short term.

What it is

Tiff Macklem, Governor of the Bank of Canada (BOC), gives a speech or public remarks about the Canadian economy and monetary policy.

Why it matters

As the person with the most influence over Canada's interest-rate direction, the Governor's words are closely watched. Importance depends on the content but is usually moderate to high.

Usual market reaction

Traders usually listen for hints about whether rates may be raised, held or cut, and for views on inflation and growth. A hawkish tone tends to support the Canadian dollar (CAD), while a dovish tone often weighs on it. Markets compare the remarks with what was already expected, and prices can be volatile during the speech or Q&A.

What it is

Christine Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank (ECB), gives a speech or answers questions at an event, usually discussing the eurozone economy and monetary policy.

Why it matters

The ECB sets eurozone interest rates, so the President's words are often watched closely, especially for fresh hints about the direction of rates.

Usual market reaction

Traders usually listen for her view on inflation and growth and for any hint about whether rates may be raised, held or cut. A hawkish tone often supports the euro, while a dovish tone tends to weigh on it. Prices usually react to how the message differs from what the market already expected, and if nothing new is said the move may be small.

What it is

Canada's federal government, through the Department of Finance, presents its plans for revenue, spending, the deficit and borrowing for the fiscal year.

Why it matters

The budget shows the direction of fiscal policy, such as spending levels and government debt, which can affect economic growth and confidence in the Canadian dollar. Its importance is usually moderate and depends on whether it contains surprises.

Usual market reaction

Markets usually compare the actual numbers, such as the size of the deficit and borrowing plans, with what analysts expected. If the plan looks more disciplined or more growth-friendly than expected, the Canadian dollar (CAD) often gets support, while a much larger deficit or borrowing need than expected can weigh on it. The budget can also influence bond yields and interest-rate expectations, but reactions tend to be modest without surprises.

Forecast57.7Previous58.2

What it is

The Ivey Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) is published by the Ivey Business School and is based on a survey of purchasing managers across Canada about business activity.

Why it matters

Purchasing managers often see changes in demand early, so the index gives a timely read on the health of the Canadian economy. A reading above 50 usually signals expansion and below 50 contraction. Its importance is usually moderate.

Usual market reaction

Markets usually compare the actual reading with the forecast. A higher-than-forecast result tends to support the Canadian dollar (CAD) because it points to a stronger economy, while a lower-than-forecast result often weighs on it. Moves are usually smaller than for major data such as jobs figures or Bank of Canada rate decisions.

Forecast48.1Previous46.3

What it is

A survey of how American households feel about the economy and their own finances, produced by the University of Michigan. The preliminary reading usually comes out mid-month, followed by a final figure later.

Why it matters

Consumer spending is a large part of the US economy, and the survey also includes inflation expectations that the Fed pays attention to. It is usually a medium-impact release.

Usual market reaction

Markets usually compare the actual figure with the forecast. A higher-than-forecast reading tends to support the US dollar because confident consumers may spend more, while a lower reading often weighs on it. Gold sometimes moves in the opposite direction to the dollar, and the inflation expectations in the report can also shift views on interest rates.

Previous4.7%

What it is

A preliminary survey from the University of Michigan (UoM) asking US consumers how much they expect prices to rise, over both the next year and the longer term. The preliminary figure comes first and a final figure follows later.

Why it matters

The Federal Reserve (Fed) pays attention to what people expect for inflation because it can influence spending and price-setting, so this data can shape interest-rate expectations. Its importance is usually moderate to fairly high.

Usual market reaction

Markets usually compare the actual figure with the forecast. Higher-than-forecast inflation expectations may lead traders to think the Fed will keep rates high for longer, which tends to support the US dollar and bond yields and often weighs on gold. A lower-than-forecast figure usually has the opposite effect. Reactions tend to be stronger when the result differs a lot from expectations.