Economic calendar

Previous0.3%

What it is

A monthly estimate of how prices of goods and services are changing in Australia, produced by the Melbourne Institute at the University of Melbourne.

Why it matters

It comes out before the official CPI, so traders use it as an early hint of inflation trends, which relate to RBA interest rate decisions. It is usually a low-to-medium impact release.

Usual market reaction

Markets usually compare the actual figure with the forecast. A higher-than-forecast reading tends to support the Australian dollar, as traders may see the RBA keeping rates higher for longer, while a lower reading often weighs on it. The reaction is usually milder than for the official CPI.

Forecast1.8%Previous-6.1%

What it is

Data on the number of permits approved for new buildings in Australia, published by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) as a change from the previous month.

Why it matters

Approvals are a forward-looking sign of construction activity and the housing market, which is sensitive to interest rates. It is usually a low-to-medium impact release, and the figure often jumps around from month to month.

Usual market reaction

Markets usually compare the actual figure with the forecast. A higher-than-forecast result tends to support the Australian dollar as it suggests solid housing demand and a stronger economy, while a lower one often weighs on it. The reaction is usually modest.

Forecast53.3Previous53.3

What it is

An index based on surveys of purchasing managers at Japanese factories about orders, output and hiring, compiled by S&P Global. The final reading is a revision of the earlier flash estimate.

Why it matters

A reading above 50 usually signals that manufacturing is expanding, and below 50 that it is shrinking. It is an early signal of economic health, but the final figure often matters less when it is close to the flash estimate.

Usual market reaction

Markets usually compare the actual figure with the forecast, which is often close to the flash number. A higher-than-forecast result tends to give the yen slight support as it points to a stronger economy, while a lower one often weighs on it. The reaction is usually smaller than for Bank of Japan announcements.

Forecast52.0Previous52.1

What it is

A survey of purchasing managers at private Chinese factories, compiled by S&P Global (formerly known as the Caixin PMI). A reading above 50 means the manufacturing sector is expanding, and below 50 means it is contracting.

Why it matters

It is one of the first monthly readings on the health of China's economy, so traders watch it closely. Its importance is usually moderate.

Usual market reaction

Prices tend to react to the actual figure compared with the forecast. A higher-than-forecast result usually supports the yuan and commodity-linked currencies such as the AUD, and often helps stock market sentiment. A lower-than-forecast result usually weighs on them.

Previous15.5%

What it is

A commodity price index published by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). It shows the year-on-year change in prices of Australia's main exports, such as iron ore, coal and LNG.

Why it matters

Australia relies heavily on commodity export income, so price changes matter for its economy. This release usually has a fairly small market impact.

Usual market reaction

Prices tend to react to the actual figure compared with the forecast. A higher-than-forecast rise in commodity prices usually supports the Australian dollar (AUD), as export earnings often improve, while a lower result tends to weigh on it. The reaction is often muted because traders can already see these prices moving in the market.

Forecast56.0Previous56.0

What it is

The final version of the US manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index, published by S&P Global. It revises the earlier flash estimate released a little before.

Why it matters

Because the flash estimate is already out, the final reading usually has a limited impact unless it differs noticeably from the flash figure.

Usual market reaction

Prices usually react only when the actual figure differs from the forecast, which normally sits close to the flash reading. A higher-than-forecast result often supports the US dollar (USD) and may weigh slightly on gold, while a lower-than-forecast one tends to pressure the dollar and can help gold a little.

Forecast0.4%Previous0.9%

What it is

A measure of the monthly change in the value of construction spending in the United States, published by the US Census Bureau.

Why it matters

It reflects the health of housing and infrastructure, which links to interest rates and economic growth. Its importance is usually low to moderate.

Usual market reaction

Prices usually react to the actual figure compared with the forecast. A higher-than-forecast result often gives slight support to the US dollar as it points to a firmer economy, and may weigh a little on gold. A lower-than-forecast result tends to pressure the dollar. The reaction is generally modest.

Forecast77.2Previous77.9

What it is

A component of the US ISM Manufacturing report, published by the Institute for Supply Management. It measures whether factories are paying more or less for materials and inputs. A reading above 50 means prices are rising.

Why it matters

It is an early signal of inflation pressure, which feeds into the Federal Reserve's interest rate thinking, so traders pay it fair attention.

Usual market reaction

Prices usually react to the actual figure compared with the forecast. A higher-than-forecast reading points to stronger inflation pressure, which often supports the US dollar and Treasury yields and may weigh on gold and stock indices. A lower-than-forecast result tends to have the opposite effect.